Bakken bounces back: Oil production recovers in November
M.K. French
Farmer Staff Writer
Just when concerns were mounting after a wildfire-related dip, North Dakota’s oil fields roared back to life in November 2024, pumping out over 1.2 million barrels of oil per day. “I was pleasantly surprised,” admitted Nathan Anderson, Director of the Department of Mineral Resources (DMR), referring to North Dakota’s oil production rebound in November 2024. After a dip in October due to wildfires, the state saw a resurgence, with total oil production reaching 36,632,000 barrels. This good news, however, was tempered by a more cautious outlook for the future, delivered at the January 2025 Director’s Cut meeting.
Anderson, who has been in his role for four months, began by thanking the DMR team and other collaborating agencies for their “continued focus on the agency, each other, the safety of themselves and those they work around, and their passion for what they do for the state of North Dakota.” He then dove into the numbers.
While November’s production marked a “43,000 barrel per day rebound or increase” from October, the North Dakota market price of $63.60 per barrel was “99.1 percent below revenue forecast.” Anderson also noted a data gap: “The North Dakota light sweet price is not included in the document; the source is no longer available.” He explained that the DMR is actively seeking a replacement data source.
On the gas front, November saw “just under 104 BCF per month and 3.5 BCF per day,” with a robust 95 percent gas capture rate. Well permitting was “up slightly from November,” with 87 permits in December and 78 the previous month, “close to the target of 100.” The rig count, however, dipped from 36 in December to 31 currently. Anderson offered some context, noting the combined rig count for Texas and New Mexico is “304 rigs, which is 52 percent of the rigs in the United States.”
Other highlights from Anderson’s report included:
• A slight decrease in wells waiting on completion, down to 301 in November.
• 89 completed wells in December, down slightly from November due to “holiday and year-end impacts.”
• A continuing rise in producing wells, now at 19,334.
• The IJA grant nearing completion, with 73 wells plugged and 111 sites reclaimed.
• Fort Berthold Reservation seeing 17,255 barrels of oil produced per day with two active drilling rigs.
• Operators maintaining a roughly 12-month permit inventory.
• A trend toward longer laterals, “trending from 2-mile laterals to the 3 and 4-mile laterals,” with preliminary data suggesting an increase in “total drilled and completed footage.”
Anderson’s presentation included an illustration of year-over-year production and monthly spuds and completions. He pointed to a “disconnect” between activity and price since 2020, attributing it to a shift in “investor expectation…to shareholder returns.” Looking ahead to 2025, Anderson predicted “the rig count and number of frac crews to remain steady year-over-year” and “production to remain relatively steady.” However, he cautioned that “a new Administration coming into office and geopolitical items across the globe can be impacted to pricing.”
The issue of federal lease sales was also raised. Regarding a BLM Montana Dakota lease sale offering 13 parcels, Anderson stated, “I believe that 13 parcels is…good, but I…do believe it’s still a long ways from what’s really desired, which is much more.” He also addressed potential impacts of tariffs on Canadian oil imports, admitting, “I’ve not heard of that actually, so I can’t really speak…intelligently about that.” However, he did speculate on potential sanctions against countries like Iran and Venezuela, expressing confidence that the administration would have a plan to “balance production” to avoid market disruption.
Justin Kingstead, Director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, provided additional context. He pointed to a “slight increase on the Montana side of the play” and discussed fluctuations in the gas-oil ratio, attributing a recent dip to October’s wildfires. He also noted that the Brent-WTI spread, “well below that $5 threshold,” continued to favor pipeline transport. He shared “very encouraging news” about flaring, with a 1 percent decrease resulting in 96 percent gas capture for Bakken molecules. Kingstead also mentioned that the EIA’s oil price outlook was “certainly a downward shift,” with a forecast of sub-$60 oil by late 2026.
In closing, Anderson reiterated the importance of longer laterals for efficiency gains, stating, “The state is likely…completing and drilling the same amount of rock with less rigs and less frac crews.” He added that the DMR is collecting more data on this trend and expects to have more concrete numbers soon. While current production is strong, the longer-term outlook, influenced by global factors and investor behavior, remains a key area to watch.
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