McKenzie County Farmer - Latest News

Steve Hallstrom
Special to The Farmer

A complex picture is evolving across the nation’s agricultural sector as the second quarter of 2025 approaches. Despite challenges such as fluctuating cattle prices, rising input costs, and uncertainties around trade policies, many farmers and ranchers are adapting to the constantly changing landscape and embracing opportunities for growth.

But the outlook is anything but unanimous.

U.S. farmer sentiment continued its upward trend in February, according to Purdue University researchers who publish a monthly sentiment index in conjunction with the financial services firm, CME Group. The Purdue Ag Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month to a reading of 152, driven by a combination of factors, including a sharp recovery in crop prices, expectations for disaster payments authorized by Congress and continued strength in the U.S. livestock sector.

At the same time, Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet survey, which measures the sentiment of rural bankers in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, tells a different story. Its overall reading for February slumped to 38.0 from 42.3 in January. Any readings above 50 on the index, that ranges from 0 to 100, suggests economic growth in the months ahead, with readings below 50 indicating decline.

Bankers pointed to 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China as potentially problematic, with only 9 percent of bankers viewing President Trump’s tariff agenda in a favorable light.

Calli Thorne, and her husband CJ, operate the Triangle M Ranch North of Watford City, which has been in the family for five generations. The Thornes joined with another family, last July, to diversify in a big way; by purchasing a meat processing plant and retail store, Yellowstone River Beef, in Williston. So, she sees the industry from both the producer and the retail side. In a recent interview with the McKenzie County Farmer, she says the producer side has been strong.

 “The cattle market has been great for us,” she says. “Cattle prices have been setting records, which is exciting for those of us in the cattle business, especially the cow-calf guys, which we are part of. It’s funny because I remember this time last year, prices were really good, and we didn’t know how long they would last. So (laughs) it’s fun and exciting here on the ranch is what I always tell people.”

North Dakota, as a whole, has a diverse and thriving agricultural base that has provided a solid foundation for economic growth. The state leads the nation in spring wheat and sunflower production and has been the No. 1 honey-producing state in the country for 19 years running, according to NDSU Researchers.

The Benefits of Diversification
and Economic Resilience

The success of North Dakota’s agriculture isn’t just about crops and cattle. Energy and agriculture are teaming up to fuel economic activity and job creation across the region. The state’s ethanol industry, for example, has contributed $623 million to the economy. Beyond the direct financial impact, ethanol plants also provide significant employment opportunities. NDSU data states that ethanol plants employ over 230 workers in positions such as chemists, engineers, accountants, and managers, with the industry supporting more than 1,000 jobs across various sectors of the economy.

North Dakota ethanol plants use 210 million bushels of corn annually, and more than 80 percent of the corn is purchased from North Dakota farmers. What’s more, 40-60 percent of North Dakota’s total annual corn production is purchased by North Dakota ethanol plants. Each bushel of corn processed by North Dakota ethanol plants produces 3 gallons of ethanol, 15 pounds of livestock feed (dried distillers grains), 18 pounds of carbon dioxide and up to 1 pound of corn oil.

In addition to ethanol, North Dakota’s expanding food manufacturing sector is also contributing to the state’s economic growth. Entrepreneurs are tapping into opportunities in food production, including IPA, wine, and cider manufacturing, along with Agritourism ventures that are drawing visitors and expanding the state’s agricultural appeal.

Still, Thorne says there are always risk factors lurking on the horizon.

“We do have to wait to see what the rest of winter is going to do, and what we’re going to get for moisture. I mean, like most other people, we would take rain more than snow, but any type of moisture makes us happy because otherwise we start wondering what we will have for pasture grass or rotational grazing and what are we going to be buying.”

The retail side is a newer game for Thorne and her family, with the same concerns most retailers have.

“We still need to balance the costs of doing business, especially as we buy beef for butchering and processing. While prices are higher, it’s important to keep costs manageable for consumers. We bought this business less than a year ago, and you have to look at all those costs from building insurance to health insurance for employees; every little thing from the vacuum seal to the labels is going up. It’s not just the cost of that steak that’s going up. We love beef and we want our customers to be able to afford it. And, we know everybody’s struggling right now, trying to make ends meet, it seems like. But the exciting thing is people have come in and said, ‘hey, we’d keep coming even if you raised it a buck or two.”

The Uncertain Outlook of
Global Trade and Tariffs

Bill Bullard is the CEO of R-Calf, the largest trade association dedicated to the continued profitability and viability of the U.S. cattle and sheep industries. In a recent interview with Fox Business, Bullard discussed what he calls a concerning trend; the shrinking U.S. beef and lamb industries.

“In the last 40 years, we’ve lost 285,000 beef cattle farms and ranches. The herd has shrunk by 6.5 million, and we’ve lost 87,000 farmer feeders. Trade has fast dismantled our domestic supply chains for two very important protein commodities, beef and lamb, and this is the direct result of a failed trade policy in which we presumed that if we continue to encourage foreign producers to access the U.S. market, we would in a reciprocal manner we would increase exports. But what has happened is imports have far outpaced our exports, and they have displaced our domestic producers.”

To restore balance, Bullard advocates for the imposition of tariffs on cheaper foreign imports. “The tariffs are important because they help to balance the playing field. So domestic producers are no longer competing against foreign countries that have lower wages, lower environmental standards, less stringent food and safety standards. We need to level the playing field.

Thorne also is keeping an eye on trade policy and federal expense cutting, because Yellowstone River Beef is part of that story.
“It’s interesting, about the tariffs. I’m definitely a glass half full person, even in this year when we could use moisture and things like that. When it comes to the tariffs, I’ve kind of kept believing that I think it’ll play out and be good. And at the same time, you wonder if this is working in our favor. Just last week, we heard that the USDA was supposed to send out $3 billion for local foods and schools and food banks. And North Dakota was going to be a part of that, with close to $3 million or something, and as local ranchers and a local butcher, we’d been talking with our state specialist on that and were pretty excited about the potential opportunity.  And then we just found out last week that was one of the things that was cut. So, it’s kind of like ‘wait a second, what happened to local and agriculture and making things healthy again? So, you can’t help but question things sometimes.”

Thorne says over the next couple weeks, however, Yellowstone River Beef will be shipping beef products overseas.
“That’s not what we bought that business for.” says Thorne. “We knew we could do it if we wanted to, but we want to focus a lot more on local. But at the same time, to keep the wheels turning, I guess we’ll check all opportunities…It’s interesting, every week I’m getting phone calls or emails on, ‘Hey, are you interested in exporting?”

The trade and tariff picture is also a key issue when it comes to attracting future generations into farming. Bullard emphasizes that for the U.S. to maintain food security, the next generation must be encouraged to enter agriculture. “We have to make sure there’s an opportunity for young farmers to thrive,” says Bullard. “The market should be open to them, not flooded with imports that push them out.”

Bullard adds that the health of American livestock production is more than just money and jobs. The country needs to be able to feed itself even in face of global trade disruptions.

“We can’t afford to rely on other countries for our food supply. It’s not just an economic issue - it’s a national security issue. We have to continue to attract new entrants into both the sheep and cattle industry. The only way to do that is to provide them the opportunity to access their domestic market instead of being pushed out of the domestic market by an increasing flood of imports.”
The USDA reports that even though 36 million cattle are slaughtered every year in the U.S., the nation is a net importer of beef, with countries like Canada, Australia, and Mexico being major suppliers.

This, Bullard says, is why tariffs on imported beef are crucial.

“We need to give an opportunity for our industry to rebuild, having lost over half of our producers already. And the way to do that is to impose tariffs on these cheaper foreign imports. We give consumers the opportunity to support the domestic supply chain, and it is that domestic supply chain that provides our nation with the ability to achieve self-sufficiency, and self-sufficiency in food is certainly in the national security interest.”

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